Home sales slumped in the second quarter of 2018 after having the strongest period of growth in years. Existing homes sales were down 0.6% in June, from May.
Economists are forecasting 4%+ growth for the second quarter. Corporate profits are strong and jobless claims are down.
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate
of 1,273,000. This is 2.2 percent below the revised May rate. but is 3.0 percent below the June
2017 rate. Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
1,173,000. This is 4.2 % below the revised June 2017 rate.
Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 858,000; this is 9.1 percent below the revised
Privately-owned housing completions in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,261,000. This is 2.2 percent above
the June rate. Single-family housing completions in June were at a rate of 862,000; this is 2.3 percent below the revised May rate.
Sales of new single-family houses in June 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 631,000. This is 5.3 percent below the
revised May rate of 666,000, but is 2.4 percent above the June 2017 estimate of 616,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2018 was $302,100. The average sales price was $363,300.
(Census). The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 301,000. This represents a supply of 5.7
months at the current sales rate.
National average for 30 year mortgage money is 4.50%. 15 year money is at 3.96%. 5/1 arms are at 4.34% and Jumbo
loans are at 4.70%.
The National Association of Homebuilder Wells Fargo market confidence index (HMI) is at
71 for June, down from 72 in May.
Existing home sales were projected to rise 2.8% above the 2017 levels in 2018 to 5.8 million (Realtor).
A record high stock market, passage of the Republican tax bill, record job creation, pent-up household formation and
rising consumer confidence in the economy were projected to give more Americans the ability to purchase
a home. Elevated prices and higher mortgage rates are impacting the housing market. Firm job growth and
still-favorable consumer attitudes about the housing market suggest fundamentals remain sound for residential
real estate. At the same time, property price appreciation continues to outpace wage growth, threatening to
put homes out of reach for younger Americans and those looking to purchase for the first time.
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